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The Google Earth graphic at left shows the Nat'l Hurricane Center's 11AM Saturday, September 6, 2008 forecast path of Tropical Cyclone Ike. This forecast shows Ike passing well west of Key West, in 4 days -- as a Category One. The Florida Keys' "emergency management" director, Irene Toner, prematurely "ordered" a total evacuation of the Keys with nothing but a five-day forecast that had its "center line" going through Marathon. The forecast at the time was NOT to suggest Ike was going to hit Marathon dead-on. It was intended to show the storm was likely to come within 300 miles of Marathon! (I have always been relieved to see Key Largo smack on the center line at the 3, 4, or 5-day position -- because that almost guarantees the storm will NOT hit Key Largo dead-on.)

I thought we had all learned the lesson not to "focus on the line" after Charlie plowed into Punta Gorda mouth four years ago -- when "the line" showed it going into Tampa. The National Hurricane Center spent months trying to educate "television meteorologists" and local emergency management officials to look at the whole picture -- particularly the error bars that come with every forecast position. In this case, the NHC forecasters made the point very clear in every forecast, that the 4- and 5-day forecasts have "greater than usual" errors. If our local "experts" had looked at the model spread before crying "Wolf," they would have seen that the models utilized by the NHC were all over the place, and the storm could be in Jacksonville or Cozumel rather than in Marathon on Day 5.

The "Cry Wolf" syndrome has been seen before; the most egregious example being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, when Monroe County "ordered" the evacuation of the Middle and Upper Keys at 6AM on Sunday -- for a storm that made landfall only 23 hours later. Only 61% of Upper Keys residents evacuated to the mainland before Andrew, compared to the County’s predicted 87%. Only 43% evacuated the Middle Keys, compared to the predicted 73%. 30% of those who did evacuate, did so before the evacuation "order" was announced. Of those who did evacuate, 27% only went as far as Dade County, where the storm actually made landfall.

If the County could make the mistaken call it made in Andrew, only 1 day from landfall, what -- pray tell -- made Irene Toner think she could get it right 5 days before a somewhat possible landfall? The Florida Keys are islands -- just in case you didn't know -- like Puerto Rico and the Hawaiian Islands. Island communities need hurricane shelters. the Florida Keys need hurricane shelters.

The sole reason we do not have hurricane shelters is a political one -- not an engineering one. The majority of Florida Keys voters -- homevoters primarily -- want to prevent the Keys' population from increasing. That majority elects the County Commission, which in turn does the homevoters' bidding -- and has refused since 1993 to build hurricane shelters (except for their own office building in Marathon, which will not withstand a Category Five hit).

Putting the homevoters in the same political camp as the tree-huggers -- and the last five Governors and the DCA -- puts the lives of Keys' residents at risk every hurricane season. There is no doubt that this group of anti-growth factions would dearly love a repeat of the 1935 hurricane, and at least a few dozen deaths (maybe not hundreds), to prove that people should not live in the Florida Keys!

Sal gutierrez Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:18 am

Do you only answer questions from gay people??? About 4 or 5 days ago I ask you to comment on some property rights questions and government meeting rules…..you failed to answer the questions submitted. I think Carlos will win this contest. He has the ability to answer and defend all members of this community……not just the gays…

Saturday, September 6, 2008

The "Cry Wolf" Syndrome Hits Again with the Premature Evacuation Order for Tropical Cyclone Ike

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